Week 11 NFL Picks : The Curse of Parlays
Did I say curse? I meant gift. Last week was the first time I’ve actually put my money where my mouth is and placed a bet on some of my NFL predictions (man, that’s a lot of past tense and present tense conflict there… but what am I supposed to say, put my money where my mouth was??) Coincidentally, last week was the first week I’ve ever actually won a 3-team parlay when betting on football. I probably bet at least 10 weeks last year and didn’t win a single one. This year, I’m 1/1, and it feels good.
The winning card was Saints -½, Bears -2½, and Cardinals +14½.
So with a renewed sense of confidence, I digress into the Week 11 picks…
Tennessee Titans +6½ @ Atlanta Falcons
Titans. Granted the Falcons offense is stellar, but the Titans offense hasn’t been looking to shabby either (see last week’s destruction of the Panthers.) Atlanta doesn’t have the best defense in the world, and AFC v. NFC, I’ll take AFC all day.
Buffalo Bills +1½ @ Miami Dolphins
Buffalo. I have to think that the Bills have some steam left in them. This game truly could go either way because Miami plays every game with the same amount of intensity as the Superbowl, because every victory for them is like winning the Superbowl. The Bills got hammered last week by the Cowboys, but Miami doesn’t have nearly the same weapons to dominate the Bills secondary (which is garbage.) Man, I didn’t make a very strong case, did I?
Cincinnati Bengals +7½ @ Baltimore Ravens
Bengals. Logic would tell me that the Bengals defense (top 3 in the league) should have no trouble containing a Ravens offense that looks confused and lackluster. If the Bengals can hang with the Steelers, I’ll take a full touchdown against the Ravens all day.
Jacksonville Jaguars -1½ @ Cleveland Browns
Jaguars. Let the shootout of rookie QB’s commence. This game is probably going to be more like a 12-9 kinda of game with plenty of field goals and boring field position battles. I think the Jags come out on top with a field goal to win the game. Don’t you go ruining that, Colt McCoy.
Oakland Raiders -1½ @ Minnesota Vikings
Raiders. All day. How can this line be so small? I smell some shennanigans. The Vikings, who’s defense gets raped every week, is only a 2 point underdog against the Raiders? How can this be? I suppose if there was any upset this week, it would be this, but reason makes me believe the Raiders have it. (P.S. McFadden, drink some stem cells.)
Carolina Panthers +7½ @ Detroit Lions
Lions. Cam Newton looked pretty awful last week against the Titans and the Lions defense has a knack for roughing up rookie QB’s (see Tebow, Tim.) That being said, I don’t think Cam Newton is going to bitch out in the same fashion. He’ll play a good game. Problem is, he’ll probably be the only one.
Tampa Bay Bucs +14½ @ Green Bay Packers
Packers. Ugh, I had such better expectations for the Buccaneers at the start of this season. What happened? Maybe Raheem Morris should have taken that opportunity to be on HBO’s Hard Knocks. They’d probably be in the NFC Championship game because of it. I thought the Bucs had a lot more talent, and now I just don’t see it. Expect Rodgers to get 8 touchdowns.
Dallas Cowboys -7½ @ Washington Redskins
Cowboys. Sexy Rexy is going to get at least 2 INTs, mark my words. The Cowboys are just hitting stride and the Redskins are hoping to get Peyton Manning next year for somewhere in the range of 10-12 draft picks. Mike Shanahan is a bum. Any time a coach says, “I really like what I saw out of Rex Grossman. I’m going to start him again.”, you know he’s a terrible coach. I will also ask you not to refer back to my compliments of Rex Grossman circa week 3.
Arizona Cardinals +9½ @ San Francisco 49ers
49ers. This is a pretty big spread which makes me uncomfortable. On the other hand, the 49ers have won their last 5 games by 6 points or more, which is VERY comforting. The Cardinals defense is going to have a lot of trouble this week.
Seattle Seahawks +2½ @ St. Louis Rams
Seahawks. Another battle of terrible, terrible teams. I predict this to be the same kind of game that involves a ton of running, field position, and field goals. Marshawn Lynch has been have a great season recently, and Stephen Jackson is nothing to sneeze at either. I think a lot of clock is going to get chewed up, and somebody will come out on top by a nice chip shot. Hopefully, that’s Seattle.
San Diego Chargers +3½ @ Chicago Bears
Chicago. Their defense has been on fire lately. San Diego is coming off of a bye after that epic shootout with Green Bay where you almost thought they’d pull it off. Their offense can be dangerous, their defense is always bad. I think the steam has run out. Me thinks the Bears by a lot.
Philadelphia Eagles +5½ @ New York Giants
Giants. Michael Vick is out this week. Maclin is out this week. It doesn’t look good for the Eagles. If Kafka or Vince Young light it up with a stellar throwing game to D.Jackson or Avant, hey, more power to them, but McCoy is going to have his hands tied with the Giants defense.
Kansas City Chiefs +14½ @ New England Patriots
Chiefs. Hear me out. The Patriots defense is young and at time uncoordinated. The Chiefs entire team is young and sometimes reckless, too. Matt Cassel has a slight chip on his shoulder for being traded from New England, so I’m sure he’d love to stick it to the Pats as best he can. The Patriots will win by 14, but not 15, making me take the Chiefs with the points.
Just to back up some of my “expertise”, these are my parlay cards I’ve placed :
Titans +6½, Jaguars -1½, Seahawaks +2½
Bills +1½, Bengals +7½, Raiders -1½
Happy Gambling! (There’s no such thing.)
This post was written by Randy Neil
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